Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but each side has possesses something to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
